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December 31st, 2013---: Happy New Year everyone! WOW, another year gone by. The saying appears to be true, the older you get, the faster time seems to fly by. So 2014 is just about here, and it appears that we'll start things off in NYC with a significant winter storm. All forecast model guidance is currently showing a coastal storm taking shape Wednesday night into Thursday off the Carolina coast. The usual details in regards to the exact track and strength of the storm is still sketchy, and as a result, the NWS is still fine tuning their snow fall totals forecast. Right now it appears that the NYC/NJ Metro, LI and southern CT could see 6 to 8 inches of snow from this storm. 8 to 10 inches is possible in the Lower Hudson Valley and parts of northern CT. These totals will be fine tuned as we get closer to the event. A quick check of the ECMWF forecast snow totals for our area shows roughly 6 inches for the city and Long Island. The 12z model runs today should bring things a bit more into focus. Another update will be posted later today.
Image Below: Latest snow fall totals forecast from the NWS in NYC showing a general 6-8 inches for the area.
December 17th, 2013---: We've been quite active lately in NYC I must say. We've already had more snow this December, than all last winter I believe. If not, we're pretty darn close to it. We had one storm move through the other day, which brought with it about 5-6 inches of snow to the NYC area, and today we're receiving another 2 to 4 inches of snow from a quick moving clipper system. I was in PA the other day visiting family when the storm hit, but I was running a time lapse sequence here in Queens, while at the same time running one from our hotel in Carlisle, PA. And, on the way home from PA we stopped in the town of Bloomsbury, NJ where a significant ice storm occurred! Lots of new videos posted on my "Storm Chasing Videos" page, so be sure to head on over there to check them out! We're expecting a warm up later this week, with no other significant snow storms in sight, at least for the time being.
Images below: Snow falling this morning in Queens, NY & the latest snow fall totals forecast from the NWS for the NYC area and surrounding.
November 26th, 2013---: The first significant storm in several months is about to bring a much needed soaking rain to the northeast. The center of the low will track right over the NYC Metro so we will be on the warm side of this system, that means just plain rain for NYC, with any snow accumulations well to the north and west of the coastal locations. Strong winds will also accompany this storm system, and we have a wind advisory in place until tomorrow morning, as well as a Flood Watch. 3-5 inches of rain could fall overnight tonight into the day on Wednesday, which will undoutably mess up the Thanksgiving holiday travel plans for millions of Americans. Many people will unfortuantely be dealing with flight delays and cancellations at many of the major airports. The timing of this storm could not be worse! Literally hitting on one of the busiest travel days of the year.
Image Below: The 18z NAM model total precipitation forecast for the Thanksgiving Storm. That's upwards of 3 inches forecast for many parts of the northeast.
October 31st, 2013---: Happy Halloween! Well, this blog has been quite for a few months, mostly because NOTHING has really happened here in NYC. Our summer thunderstorm season was less than stellar, with only 3 good thunderstorm days this season. If you're interested in checking those videos out, just bounce on over to my Storm Chasing Videos page. In recent news, we've just passed the one year anniversary of Hurricane Sandy's land fall here in the northeast! It's hard to beleive it's been a year already, all the events of that day are still very fresh in my mind. Many communities in and around NYC and much of the Jersey Shore have a long way to go, but much progress has been made over the last 12 months. Hurricane Sandy was without a doubt a storm that will be firmly planted in the history books. Nothing like that going on this year however. As a matter of fact, the Atlantic hurricane season while not necessarily quiet in terms of named storms, was quiet in terms of strong hurricanes, there were NO Category 3 or above storms in the Atlantic this year. Come to think of it, I don't even think we had a Category 2 storm in the Atlantic this year! I'll have to confirm that however. In terms of the weather here in NYC, we're currently awaiting the arrival of a strong cold front which will bring some much needed rains to NYC over the next 24 hours. October 2013 has been well above normal in the temperature department, and well below normal in the rain department. There are even High Wind Warnings in effect for points east of NYC over Long Island for late tonight and into tomorrow as the cold front blasts on through the northeast. I'm not expecting much in the way of thunderstorms, all though the Storm Prediction Center does have areas to our north under a "see text" for tomorrow with low 5% probabilities of severe weather. Lightning should be at a minimum however. The bigger issue will be strong damaging winds accompanying the line as it moves through the area. So be on the lookout and stay alert for falling trees and branches.
Image Below: Forecast temperatures for tomorrow (Nov 1st) showing the unseasonably warm temperatures along the east coast, and cooler temps to our west and northwest behind the cold front.
July 15th, 2013---: In the immortal words of Glenn Frey, the heat is on here in NYC! Temperatures all this week will be in the low to mid, and potentially the upper 90s with high humidity levels! Heat Advisories have been issued for all of NYC and there's not much relief expected in terms of cooling storms. At least not until late week or on the weekend when a slow moving cold front approaches the area. This cold front could bring a multi-day severe weather event to the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, and the Storm Prediction Center has already outlined this on their 4-8 day convective outlook. Details will not become clear regarding this potential for several more days, so in the meantime I'll be concentrating on dealing with the excessive heat. There is the outside chance of a few rouge storms making their way towards NYC each day this week, but those chances are slim, and are higher to the north and west of the city itself. Still though, with the high moisture content in place, and storms that do form could bring torrential rains so be on the lookout just in case one pops up.
Top Image: Forecast temperatures for the country today.
Bottom Image: The Storm Prediction Centers 4-8 day outlook showing the potential for a multi-day severe weather event beginning late this week. The greatest risk as it looks right now for the northeast states would be Fri/Sat
April 10th, 2013---: NYC got it's first thunderstorm of the season today, and it was quite the storm! The unseasonably warm weather of the past few days was being replaced by more seasonable air and anytime that happens, I keep an eye out for storms. However, there really wasn't any instability to speak of today and once the sea breeze kicked in around mid afternoon, dropping temperatures at my place in Queens from the upper 70s to the upper 50s, I thought any chances for good storms was gone. That stable marine layer usually does a good job at weakening any storms that approach the coast. But, there was just enough elevated instability present to sustain the severe warned storms moving out of PA into NJ. While no longer severe by the time they got to the NYC area, they did still feature a lot of great cloud to cloud, and cloud to ground lightning! Definitely a surprise and a great way to kick off spring here in NYC!
Image Below: Video still of cloud to cloud lightning at the height of the storms here in Queens, NY yesterday evening. Check out my "Storm Chasing Videos" page for video of the storms as they moved though.
March 5th, 2013---: Another coastal storm is poised to affect the mid Atlantic and northeast tomorrow into Friday. While it doesn't appear we'll get clobbered, we could see 4-6 inches of snow which as it stands right now will mostly fall overnight tomorrow into Thursday morning. Things should start off as rain here in NYC and then change over to snow as we get into the early evening hours. The snow will continue into Thursday morning and throughout the day we will see rain and snow. Basically things will be very messy from Wednesday through Friday. Any snow that does accumulate will be heavy and wet. And with temperatures forecast to be in the low 50s both Friday and Saturday, any snow will be gone fast. So, enjoy what will most likely be our last significant snow fall for the season. Spring is just a few short weeks away!
Image Below: Latest snow fall totals forecast for the NYC area and surrounding covering the timeframe 7am Wed through 7pm Friday.
February 25th, 2013---: Got some Hurricane Sandy after math photos from Rockaway Beach and Breezy Point, Queens up on the New Photos section of my photo gallery. Yeah, I know haha, took long enough right? Pop over and check them out! These particular photos were taken by my chase partner Dave Lewison, we both took several trips down there to survey the damage in the days after Sandy made land fall.
February 10th, 2013---: Snow fall tallies NYC Metro and surrounding from the National Weather Service NYC from the Blizzard Of 2013. Not buying the 15" reported in Middle Village however. That's about 4 blocks from me here in Rego Park and we got 8.5-9". They probably measured a snow drift.
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
FAIRFIELD 35.0 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
STRATFORD 33.0 1030 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MONROE 30.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BRIDGEPORT 30.0 658 AM 2/09 COOP OBSERVER
SHELTON 26.5 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
WESTON 26.5 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WESTPORT 24.5 645 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
GREENWICH 22.5 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
DARIEN 22.1 500 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NORWALK 22.0 730 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
ROXBURY 22.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEW CANAAN 22.0 600 AM 2/09 CT DOT
DANBURY 21.5 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT
STAMFORD 19.0 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NEWTOWN 17.1 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
BETHEL 16.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
RIDGEFIELD 12.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
EAST HADDAM 35.5 845 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
OLD SAYBROOK 30.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT
CLINTON 27.5 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
HADDAM 27.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT
HIGGANUM 24.0 700 AM 2/09 AMATEUR RADIO
CROMWELL 23.0 700 AM 2/09 AMATEUR RADIO
MIDDLETOWN 12.0 1200 PM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
HAMDEN 40.0 100 PM 2/09 PUBLIC
MILFORD 38.0 615 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
CLINTONVILLE 37.0 1040 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
OXFORD 36.2 600 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORTH BRANFORD 36.0 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MERIDEN 36.0 200 PM 2/09 PUBLIC
YALESVILLE 35.0 909 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WALLINGFORD 35.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NEW HAVEN 34.3 600 AM 2/09 CT DOT
WEST HAVEN 34.0 1040 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NORTHFORD 33.5 950 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WOLCOTT 33.0 457 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
EAST HAVEN 33.0 1005 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
GUILFORD 33.0 1113 AM 2/09 BROADCAST MEDIA
NORTH GUILFORD 32.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WATERBURY 32.0 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MADISON 32.0 321 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NAUGATUCK 30.0 600 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NORTH HAVEN 29.0 950 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BRANFORD 28.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
SOUTHBURY 26.3 1030 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORTH BRANDFORD 24.0 1230 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
BEACON FALLS 21.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT
...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
COLCHESTER 31.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT
GILMAN 27.0 600 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NORWICH 25.0 600 AM 2/09 CT DOT
LISBON 24.0 1158 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
GALES FERRY 24.0 1045 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
OLD LYME 23.6 1200 PM 2/09 PUBLIC
LEDYARD CENTER 22.0 1045 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MYSTIC SEAPORT 21.0 1100 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE
STONINGTON 15.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
RIVERVALE 16.8 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
WOODCLIFF LAKE 16.0 1000 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BERGENFIELD 15.5 1015 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
FRANKLIN LAKES 15.0 400 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
HILLSDALE 14.0 300 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
PARAMUS 14.0 600 AM 2/09 NJ TPK AUTHORITY
PARK RIDGE 14.0 855 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
RIDGEWOOD 13.5 717 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
RIVER VALE 13.5 130 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
ALLENDALE 13.1 423 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
OAKLAND 13.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MAHWAH 12.5 1115 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NEW MILFORD 11.8 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
EAST RUTHERFORD 11.5 600 AM 2/09 NJ TPK AUTHORITY
LODI 11.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
DUMONT 11.0 1000 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SADDLE BROOK 10.0 930 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
CRESSKILL 10.0 150 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
DEMAREST 8.0 1010 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
VERONA 14.0 240 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NORTH CALDWELL 13.5 800 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
MILLBURN 12.0 240 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
ROSELAND 12.0 230 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
CEDAR GROVE 11.8 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
WEST ORANGE 10.2 320 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
BLOOMFIELD 10.1 325 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MAPLEWOOD 10.1 830 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NEWARK AIRPORT 10.0 700 AM 2/09 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
BELLEVILLE 9.6 1130 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORTH BERGEN 12.5 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
SECAUCUS 11.5 600 AM 2/09 NJ TPK AUTHORITY
JERSEY CITY 11.5 600 AM 2/09 NJ TPK AUTHORITY
HOBOKEN 10.6 755 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
HARRISON 9.0 355 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
KEARNY 8.0 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
BAYONNE 8.0 1130 AM 2/09 EMERGENCY MANAGER
WEST MILFORD 13.2 215 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BLOOMINGDALE 12.8 700 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WAYNE 12.5 1000 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
HAWTHORNE 12.4 530 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
CLIFTON 12.0 600 AM 2/09 NJ TPK AUTHORITY
POMPTON LAKES 11.0 1000 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
RINGWOOD 10.5 1130 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
HASKELL 10.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ROSELLE 14.2 730 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ELIZABETH 12.5 600 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ROSELLE PARK 12.0 645 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
SCOTCH PLAINS 12.0 202 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
WESTFIELD 11.0 715 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
UNION 10.5 600 AM 2/09 NJ TPK AUTHORITY
NEW PROVIDENCE 7.5 225 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
FIELDSTON 15.0 515 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
RIVERDALE 13.1 720 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
BEDFORD PARK 12.3 400 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
...KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY...
SHEEPSHEAD BAY 9.0 730 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MIDWOOD 8.3 830 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MARINE PARK 7.0 915 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
EAST NORWICH 18.0 1025 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MASSAPEQUA PARK 18.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
PLAINVIEW 18.0 745 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SYOSSET 17.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
BAYVILLE 16.3 1030 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
JERICHO 15.5 1100 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
GLEN COVE 15.0 1100 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MASSAPEQUA 15.0 1030 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
WOODMERE 13.8 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
SEAFORD 13.8 730 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
CARLE PLACE 13.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
ELMONT 12.4 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
ROCKVILLE CENTRE 12.3 500 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
LEVITTOWN 12.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
HEMPSTEAD 12.0 928 AM 2/09 EMERGENCY MANAGER
ALBERTSON 12.0 1200 PM 2/09 PUBLIC
WANTAGH 11.0 600 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
BELLMORE 11.0 750 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MALVERNE 10.5 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
LONG BEACH 10.0 305 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
FLORAL PARK 10.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORTH MERRICK 10.0 830 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
BALDWIN HARBOR 9.5 730 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORTH VALLEY STREAM 9.0 700 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
LIDO BEACH 8.5 930 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEW HYDE PARK 8.0 928 AM 2/09 EMERGENCY MANAGER
...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY...
CENTRAL PARK 11.4 700 AM 2/09 CENTRAL PARK ZOO
UPPER WEST SIDE 10.9 730 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
HAMILTON HOUSES 9.0 745 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
GREENWICH VILLAGE 7.5 207 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
CORNWALL ON HUDSON 15.5 730 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEW WINDSOR 14.2 730 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
HARRIMAN 14.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEWBURGH 14.0 745 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
CORNWALL LANDING 14.0 1020 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
GOSHEN 13.9 840 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ROCK TAVERN 13.0 820 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
CHESTER 12.9 916 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
HAMPTONBURGH 12.8 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WARWICK 12.0 715 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SOUTH BLOOMING GROVE 12.0 1054 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MIDDLETOWN 12.0 717 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MONROE 12.0 1200 PM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
FLORIDA 10.8 925 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
OTISVILLE 10.1 1147 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
PUTNAM VALLEY 12.3 930 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MAHOPAC 12.0 800 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
KENT CLIFFS 11.0 200 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MIDDLE VILLAGE 15.0 810 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
DOUGLASTON 12.8 100 PM 2/09 PUBLIC
ASTORIA 12.5 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NYC/LA GUARDIA 12.1 700 AM 2/09 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
COLLEGE POINT 11.4 1100 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE
FLUSHING 11.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BAYSIDE 11.0 615 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
FOREST HILLS 10.7 1000 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
RICHMOND HILL 9.5 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
HOWARD BEACH 9.0 430 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
REGO PARK 8.5 830 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
KEW GARDENS 8.5 200 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
FRESH MEADOWS 8.2 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 6.4 700 AM 2/09 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
SUNNYSIDE 12.4 815 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
GREAT KILLS 12.3 830 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
ELTINGVILLE 10.2 500 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
DONGAN HILLS 8.0 330 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
BAY TERRACE 5.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEW HEMPSTEAD 13.0 1030 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NEW CITY 12.9 830 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SUFFERN 12.5 905 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
VALLEY COTTAGE 12.0 1000 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SLOATSBURG 9.5 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NYACK 9.0 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MEDFORD 33.5 1015 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
UPTON 30.9 900 AM 2/09 NWS OFFICE
CENTRAL ISLIP 30.7 815 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
COMMACK 29.1 530 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
HUNTINGTON 29.0 630 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
EAST SETAUKET 28.5 641 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
YAPHANK 28.1 1140 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
STONY BROOK 28.0 730 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ISLIP AIRPORT 27.8 700 AM 2/09 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
ST. JAMES 27.5 135 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MASTIC 27.5 1125 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
SMITHTOWN 27.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
HOLBROOK 26.5 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
BAITING HOLLOW 26.0 945 AM 2/09 NWS COOP
SHOREHAM 26.0 600 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MOUNT SINAI 26.0 600 AM 2/09 COOP OBSERVER
PORT JEFFERSON 25.5 645 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
SOUND BEACH 24.2 715 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE
SETAUKET 24.0 1200 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NORTH BABYLON 24.0 530 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
LAKE RONKONKOMA 23.0 1010 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
CENTERPORT 21.5 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
ROCKY POINT 21.0 1045 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
LINDENHURST 20.5 930 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
DEER PARK 20.0 845 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
NORTH PATCHOGUE 20.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
RONKONKOMA 19.5 115 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
RIVERHEAD 19.4 945 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE
EAST NORTHPORT 19.0 700 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BAY SHORE 18.0 1000 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE
MELVILLE 17.5 1155 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
EASTPORT 16.0 900 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE
SAYVILLE 16.0 700 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE
JAMESPORT 14.0 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MATTITUCK 12.9 1120 AM 2/09 COOP OBSERVER
SOUTHAMPTON 12.5 1208 PM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BRIDGEHAMPTON 12.0 845 AM 2/09 NWS COOP
SHIRLEY 10.3 835 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
PORT CHESTER 23.3 745 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
YONKERS 23.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
ARDSLEY 23.0 740 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
SCARSDALE 22.5 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
EASTCHESTER 22.5 700 AM 2/09 BROADCAST MEDIA
MAMARONECK 22.0 530 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
LARCHMONT 22.0 705 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
HARTSDALE 21.5 820 AM 2/09 VILLAGE EMPLOYEE
DOBBS FERRY 21.5 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
BRONXVILLE 21.3 630 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON 21.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
WHITE PLAINS 21.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
RYE 20.0 630 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
ARMONK 20.0 816 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MOUNT VERNON 17.2 300 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
SOMERS 16.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MOUNT KISCO 14.0 710 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
SLEEPY HOLLOW 12.0 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
HARRISON 12.0 745 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
MILLWOOD 11.6 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC
OSSINING 11.5 405 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER
February 8th, 2013---: Not much more to say really as the forecast for now appears to be on track. As I type we're getting rain here in NYC (11:45am) and this rain is expected to mix with sleet and freezing rain for a few more hours before fully changing back to snow between 3-7pm this evening. Once that occurs things will get interesting in a hurry as the winds ramp up later tonight combined with moderate, to at times heavy snow. There is a high bust potential here however depending on where exactly that freezing line sets up. If we don't see the change over until later this evening, we could be looking a less snow over all for the NYC Metro. But for now the general consensus is for a foot of snow to fall in the NYC area. Local amounts may be higher, or lower depending on your exact location. I'll be heading into Manhattan later this evening as it stands right now to document the storm when it really starts ramping up. Barring a drastic change in the forecast, this will be my plan. My live stream (with audio) is also up and running from Queens, NY and it will remain up until Saturday mid day. Be sure to check that out by clicking on the Live Streaming link on the navigation bar at the top of this page!
Image Below: Latest snow fall totals graphics issued by the National Weather Service NYC late this morning.
February 7th, 2013---: Our first major winter storm in over 2 years is just about upon us, and while there still are some unanswered questions, the general consensus is for at least 6 inches of snow in the NYC Metro. My personal gut feeling on this, is we could easily see more than that. However, this will all depend on just how much mixing takes place as we get into Friday morning/afternoon. I just took a look at the latest 12z run of the ECMWF, which has been very consistent over the last several days with this storm. My thinking has remained the same with snow beginning late tonight and then mixing with, and possibly changing over to all rain by late morning and afternoon. Both the 12z ECMWF and 12z GFS show a change back to all snow between 4pm and 7pm tomorrow evening. From that point forward we'll remain snow, and that's when it will begin to really pile up in a hurry in spots. The 12z ECMWF has moderate, to at times heavy snow lasting the entire night, into Saturday morning. So it's quite possible that we could see a foot of snow here in NYC. For Long Island, I wouldn't be shocked to see 12-16" in spots. This storm certainly has the potential, whether it will realize it's full potential or not is another story. Essentially what you have here are two storm systems phasing into one. Once this phase has been completed, the coastal storm will begin to rapidly deepen, this will be reflected in pressure falls at the storm center. If these two systems (one moving through the Great Lakes and the second riding up the coast from the Gulf Of Mexico) can phase even just a few hours earlier, the storm would begin to bomb out quicker, and in turn we could get more cold air pulled down from the north. The result of that would be less mixing with rain here along the coast. So, lots can still happen. Is it possible that NYC could only see a few inches of snow, yep..but as of right now it's not looking likely. To sum up, if you live in the NYC Metro, Metro NJ and on Long Island plan for staying in tomorrow night. Make it a family night and try to stay off the roads if you can. Travel will become very difficult as we get into the night time hours. And in many cases it will be down right dangerous! Another part of this storm will be the very strong winds which will begin buffeting the entire area as the storm rapidly deepens tomorrow night. Winds at times could gust up to 60-70mph over Long Island, and they could even gust over 50mph here in NYC. Those winds, combined with the heavy snow will create blizzard conditions which is why the NWS already has Blizzard Watches out for Suffolk County, LI. This Blizzard Watch could be extended west into the NYC Metro later today, but that remains to be seen. For now we are under a Winter Storm Watch, and I expect this watch to be upgraded to a warning very shortly. I won't get into snow fall totals for parts of Connecticut and Massachuttes, but it's a good bet that those areas (which should remain mostly, if not all snow for the duration) could rack up over 2 feet of snow in spots! If you're in and around the NYC Metro, I recommend getting future updates direct from the National Weather Service NYC page. They are accurate and up to date on all the watchs and warnings for your area. Just click on the map over your exact location. **4pm Update** Blizzard Warnings have been posted for NYC and snow fall totals have been bumped up. Looking like a foot is a good bet here in NYC. I've posted the latest snow fall totals graphics below
Top Image: The latest 12z ECMWF showing it's forecast position of the powerful nor'easter beginning to bomb out tomorrow evening (10pm) south of Long Island. By this time all of NYC and Long Island should be snow.
Middle Image: 12z ECMWF showing very strong winds buffeting the New England Coast, Long Island and NYC as the storm rapidly deepens tomorrow night
Second From Bottom Image: 12z ECMWF model forecasting potential 3-5" per hour snow fall rates for parts of Long Island and the NYC Metro tomorrow night.
Bottom Image: Latest snow fall totals graphics for the NYC Metro and Long Island
February 6th, 2013---: We are still on target to experience a very intense noreaster this Friday and Saturday. Initially, just the ECMWF model was on board with this storm a few days back, but since then, the other models like the GFS and NAM have come on board. So, it's looking likely that we will in fact have a coastal storm take shape over the coming days, but the million dollar question is, how much snow will this storm bring to the area. All the above models agree that the storm will track close to, if not over the 70/40 benchmark, but the key to what areas see rain, a mix of rain and snow, or just snow will depend greatly on the exact track and intensity of the storm as it passes to our south and southeast. If the system deepens (bombs out) faster and earlier, then more snow would be in the cards for places like NYC and NJ since more cold air will be pulled down earlier. Either way, NYC could see significant snow fall as it stands right now. Higher amounts, actually MUCH higher amounts are being forecast for parts of southern New England where several feet could fall! By tomorrow things should be more in focus than they are right now since we'll be that much closer to the event. I know folks like getting an idea on snow fall totals so they can plan accordingly, but the honest truth right now is NYC and Metro NJ could see as little as 3 inches, or as much as 13 inches lol. Quick update...the 12z ECMWF it out and has come in with a track very similar to the 00z run, but with not as much snow for NYC and the lower Hudson Valley. While the track is similar, this latest run doesn't have as much precip output over the local area, thus less snow. This flucuation regarding the forecast models snow fall totals & precipitation output is typical when still 48-72 hours out. Again, we should have a much better picture by tomorrow afternoon. To sum up, continue to plan for a major winter storm in and around NYC, Long Island & Northern NJ and as always, refer to your local news outlets and the National Weather Service for up to date forecasts. Things can and do change very rapidly when it comes to winter storms so be prepared just in case. I'll post another update tomorrow afternoon! And plans are in the works to live stream this entire event from here in Queens, NY so be sure to check back for more info on that!
Image Below: The latest 12z run of the ECMWF model showing it's forecast position of a rapidly intensifying nor'easter off the coast of Long Island at 06z (1am) Saturday morning. Image Courtesy Of Weather Underground. Below that, latest snow fall totals forecast from the NWS in NYC.
February 5th, 2013---: After a 2 year hiatus we finally have a significant winter storm threat for NYC and Long Island on the horizon. However, the current run of the ECMWF model is showing what could be a record breaking storm for parts of New England, including the Boston area! It's still too early to nail down snow fall totals but the current model output is showing between 4-6 inches of snow here in NYC, 5-8 inches for parts of Long Island, and what could be several feet of snow in parts of New England! Remember though, nothing is in stone and up until this morning, the ECMWF model was the only model showing this potential nor'easter. As of the 00z run last night and more recently, the 12z run today, the GFS (American Model) is now on board with a this potential coastal storm. As it stands right now, it's looking like NYC will see mostly rain, or a rain/snow mix on Friday, transitioning over to snow towards sundown as cold air gets pulled into the rapidly intensifying storm off the coast of Long Island. However, if the storm begins rapid deepening earlier than what the models are currently showing, then we could see more cold air getting pulled all the way down to the coast earlier, and in turn, more snow and less rain. So to sum up, lots of questions remain and I'm not expecting things to really come into focus until about 24 hours before the storm. So by Thursday we should have a better idea (A) if this storm is going to materialize as the models are showing, and (B) how much snow will fall over the NYC Metro. Stay tuned!
Image Below: The latest 12z run of the ECMWF model showing a rapidly intensifying nor'easter off the coast of Long Island late Friday night & early Saturday morning. Image Courtesy Of Weather Underground.
January 29th, 2013---: Here we are in late January and I'm talking about the possibility of severe thunderstorms in and around the NYC Metro tomorrow night. Not something you expect to be doing this time of year! But, there is the possibility, albeit small, that we could see some severe weather in the area tomorrow night. The greater threat for severe weather is to our south, and once again there will be the threat of tornadoes for many states in the eastern part of the US. For us here in NYC our main threat will be from a squall line moving through late in the evening, potentially bringing with it strong damaging winds and heavy flooding rains. Due to this threat the NWS here in NYC has issued both a High Wind Watch, and a Coastal Flood Watch for tomorrow evening and overnight. Things should get interesting so stay alert if you will be out and about tomorrow night.
Top Image: The Day Two Convective Outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center showing a very broad severe weather threat for the eastern US.
Bottom Image: 12z WRF Precip Model forecasting a multi-state squall line of storms stretching from the northeast, all the way into the deep south!
January 28th, 2013---: The first moderate risk for severe weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Ok for tomorrow (Tues, Jan 29th). If you live anywhere in the deep south, especially Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi be alert tomorrow. This is looking like an evening and overnight event and yes, tornadoes are likely. Night time tornado events are especially dangerous as many people are asleep and unaware of the danger. If you have a NOAA Weather Radio, please leave it on, and in alert mode tomorrow. This powerful system will continue moving east on Wednesday and could even bring some thunderstorms to the NYC Metro. The overall severe weather threat will be minimal here, but strong, damaging winds are a possibility later on Wednesday and Wednesday night, along with heavy rains.
Image Below: The Day Two Convective Outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center showing a very broad severe weather threat for tomorrow.
January 27th, 2013---: After arctic chill we'll experience a big warm up on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, but it won't last long. A very dynamic system will push a strong cold front through the eastern part of the US, bringing with it widespread severe weather to many states! Even us here in NYC could see a few strong storms come later Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passage of the cold front. Damaging winds are another possibility with this system. The GFS and ECMWF model are forecasting CAPE values around 1000 Wednesday evening, this is not something you see in this neck of the woods in January very often. A rarity for sure! CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy and the higher the values, the more unstable the atmosphere is in a nutshell. But first, before all of this we'll have to deal with the passage of a warm front tomorrow evening which will be preceded by snow, then sleet and freezing rain here in NYC. By afternoon here at the coast we should have transitioned over to just plain rain, but there will be many slick spots around tomorrow so if you will be out and about, be careful.
Image Below: The 12z ECMWF CAPE forecast for 10pm Wednesday evening showing values in the 1000 j/kg range in and around the NJ/NYC area.
January 20th, 2013---: Here comes the cold! Looks like we'll be heading into a period of below normal temperatures right through the beginning of February as it looks right now. We're about to experience some of the coldest weather in about two years here in NYC. Check out these forecast low temperatures for Tuesday morning!
January 12th, 2013---: Here we are in the thick of another NYC winter, and just like last winter we've been pretty much snowless thus far, and above normal in the temperature department. However, the forecast models are definitely signaling a major change in the post Jan 20th time frame. If all comes to fruition we'll be looking at a major arctic outbreak here in the northeast US that would bring in the coldest air since Jan 2011! This is looking more and more likely, but how extreme it will be remains to be seen.